The 2022 midterm elections are only a few weeks away, and we’re already seeing a potential “red wave” in several important swing states.
And after a late-summer push by Democrats, it looks like Republicans are once again surging due to concerning inflation and economic numbers, increasing crime, and controversy surrounding the Biden administration.
Now, some polls are showing that the GOP is nearing “lock” status for the House, and possibly the Senate.
According to a new Rasmussen survey, the results of the latest “generic congressional ballot” are in, and it’s not good news for the controlling party in Washington.
Historically, this particular poll tends to favor Democrats, which is why the results often have to be interpreted. Many experts say that if the poll shows the GOP behind by 3 points or less, they’re going to win.
Well, they’re not behind by 3 points or less — they’re ahead, and the lead just got bigger.
Said the Rasmussen breakdown (via Washington Examiner):
If the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of likely U.S. voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 43% would vote for the Democrat.
The GOP lead is up three points from last week, when they led 45% to 44%.
As this ballot leands significantly toward Democrats, such a lead is a very good sign for the opposing party.
Republican pollster Ed Goeas said the generic ballot is “kind of an inside joke” because it’s so skewed toward the left, and said that traditionally, if they’re within 3 points, “we take control of Congress.”
If this gap remains when we enter voting next month, it seems very likely that the GOP will reclaim control of the House.
As for the Senate, things are looking up there, too:
According to a Real Clear Politics analysis, GOP candidate Herschel Walker is projected to lose to Democrat incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock. However, they also predict Democrats will lose their majority.
This is because the poll shows Republicans flipping a seat in Arizona and Nevada, and holding a seat currently held by retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA).
These projections include victories where GOP candidates are actually losing their races currently, though, so it may all come down to the wire.
But while the Senate might be extremely close, RCP predicts that the House will easily go to Republicans, as they currently hold a 220-180 seat majority, with 35 races listed as toss-ups.
It’s important to note that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has predicted Democrats will hold the House.
However, given recent issues involving inflation (which doesn’t appear to be under control based on recent reports), rising crime, and escalating tensions overseas, a change in leadership might be coming fast.
- Republicans extended their “generic ballot” lead for Congress, from 1 to 4 points.
- The poll historically favors Democrats, so such a lead points towards a significant “red wave” in November.
- RealClearPolitics says the GOP projects a Senate takeover as well, with two seats flipping in AZ and NV.