By now most people know that the presumptive nominees for Republicans and Democrats in the 2024 presidential election will mirror the previous run for the White House. Joe Biden is set to face off against former President Donald Trump for the privilege of leading the country.

Like 2020, this election will likely boil down to which candidate wins key battleground states that have carried the winner by thin margins in the last two elections. The winning candidate must work hard to win over voters or plan to go home empty handed after November.

Politicians and media pundits throughout Washington, D.C., didn’t expect early polls to signal what could happen this fall. The numbers rolling in show that an unexpected upset could be in the making.

From the Washington Examiner:
All the trips back to Pennsylvania and his team’s promotion of “Scranton Joe” roots have failed to push President Joe Biden ahead of former President Donald Trump in his birth state.

In the latest Emerson College Polling/Hill survey out Thursday morning, Trump continues to lead Biden in Pennsylvania, now by a margin of 47% to 43%.

And worse for Biden, the survey analysis said, when voters are asked which way they are leaning in the election, Trump surpasses 50% to a lead of 52%-48%.

How strong are these numbers at this point in the election cycle? Reports show that Trump has topped Biden in every Emerson voter poll in Pennsylvania since November.

This is a shocking turn of events with voters after Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020. The incumbent has repeatedly used Philadelphia as a launching point for various programs and initiatives as he tries to bolster support across the state.

Trump surprised every sector of politics and the media when he won Pennsylvania in his 2016 knock-out of Hillary Clinton. Biden doesn’t look to be holding up to voter expectations in the state.

The Emerson survey stated, “President Biden holds a 38% job approval among Pennsylvania voters and a 55% job disapproval.” That’s a failing mark for the incumbent in a traditionally blue-collar state that leans Democrat.

Poll results also showed high marks for Trump when it comes to handling issues surrounding immigration and the Israel-Hamas war. Biden lagged behind on the topics while gaining points for supporting abortion access.

Trump supporters polled in the survey also revealed that they are voting more on the issues, and they don’t see their vote as a way to reject Biden. By comparison, Biden supporters see their vote as a way to punish Trump.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted this distinction in motivation among Biden and Trump voters.

“Trump voters support the former president because they care about an issue (28%), like Trump (27%), or dislike Biden (21%), whereas a plurality of Biden voters (33%) support the president because they dislike Trump and 24% support Biden because they like him as a candidate,” Kimball said.

If Trump can hold this type of lead through the November election, Pennsylvania voting results could once again send shock waves through D.C.

Key Takeaways:

• Flashbacks to 2016 presidential voting in Pennsylvania have Democrats on edge.
• Trump topped Biden in a recent polling of voters that foreshadows a shocking win.
• Biden heavily promoted his policies in Pennsylvania but is still behind in this poll.

Source: Washington Examiner